Formal Risk Assessment - Revision history

Bosmana fem at 05:51, 2 June 2023

2023-06-02T05:51:39Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:51, 2 June 2023
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	Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preventive and control measures). The concept of 'risk' is here defined as the [~~XXX hazard/~~impact * probability of occurrence~~.... to be completed..~~]		Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preventive and control measures). The concept of 'risk' is here defined as the [impact of the event * probability of occurrence]

	The differences with [[Rapid Risk Assessment\|Rapid Risk Assessments]] are:		The differences with [[Rapid Risk Assessment\|Rapid Risk Assessments]] are:
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	* the timeline in which the assessment takes place: instead of 24-28 hours, a formal risk assessment may take weeks or even months		* the timeline in which the assessment takes place: instead of 24-28 hours, a formal risk assessment may take weeks or even months
	* the focus of the risk scenarios: instead of focusing on the immediate problem, the focus includes possible future evolutions of the hazard under assessment		* the focus of the risk scenarios: instead of focusing on the immediate problem, the focus includes possible future evolutions of the hazard under assessment
	Health risks may arise in the population (emerging or newly identified diseases) or may already exist (yet with changing epidemiological patterns or changes in risk factors). It is important to ~~be aware~~ that risks do not remain static; formal risk assessments consider development scenarios.		Health risks may arise in the population (emerging or newly identified diseases) or may already exist (yet with changing epidemiological patterns or changes in risk factors). It is important to know that risks do not remain static; formal risk assessments consider development scenarios.

	=Problem formulation=		=Problem formulation=
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	=Constituting a Formal Risk assessment group=		=Constituting a Formal Risk assessment group=
	Many hazards that are assessed are cross-cutting through different sectors and disciplines in health. Therefore the team needs to reflect on this multidisciplinary and multisectoral aspect. The group should be large enough to cover all areas, and include representatives from health and other relevant sectors. Additional experts will be contacted to provide expert input.		Many hazards that are assessed are cross-cutting through different sectors and disciplines in health. Therefore the team needs to reflect on this multidisciplinary and multisectoral aspect. The group should be large enough to cover all areas and include representatives from health and other relevant sectors. Additional experts will be contacted to provide expert input.

	=Defining the probability of occurrence: an example=		=Defining the probability of occurrence: an example=
	When defining the risk of ~~the introduction of~~ West Nile Virus in a country, ~~then~~ the first issue to address is estimating the probability of ~~the introduction of~~ the virus in the population. This includes studying migratory routes of birds that could carry the virus and the presence of vectors (Aedes albopictus) in the country. Specifically, the interest will be in the frequency of occurrence of specific migratory birds in the country (this can be informed via veterinarians and wildlife societies) and the presence and future spread of the mosquito (this can be informed by environmental specialists and entomologists and in addition specialists in climate change).		When defining the risk of introducing West Nile Virus in a country, the first issue to address is estimating the probability of introducing the virus in the population. This includes studying migratory routes of birds that could carry the virus and the presence of vectors (Aedes albopictus) in the country. Specifically, the interest will be in the frequency of occurrence of specific migratory birds in the country (this can be informed via veterinarians and wildlife societies) and the presence and future spread of the mosquito (this can be informed by environmental specialists and entomologists and in addition specialists in climate change).

	Socio-economic factors (e.g., agricultural development, technological development, movement of people) also need to be ~~taken into account~~.		Socio-economic factors (e.g., agricultural development, technological development, movement of people) also need to be considered.

	=Defining the impact=		=Defining the impact=
	The scope of the risk assessment defines ~~also~~ the scope of the impact to describe: only health or also other areas such as economics, travel, agriculture, security etc. The impact depends on various hazard factors.		The scope of the risk assessment also defines the scope of the impact to describe: only health or also other areas such as economics, travel, agriculture, security etc. The impact depends on various hazard factors.

	Hazard factors for infectious agents are:		Hazard factors for infectious agents are:
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	=Modeling the risks=		=Modeling the risks=
	Scenario tree ~~modeling~~ describes the chain of events ~~that will lead~~ to possible risks. This requires describing a tree of events (each event step will be a relevant condition for the final risk). Then for each of these steps, the probability is assigned. Finally a sensitivity analysis is performed.		Scenario tree modelling describes the chain of events leading to possible risks. This requires describing a tree of events (each event step will be a relevant condition for the final risk). Then for each of these steps, the probability is assigned. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed.

	=Mapping the risks=		=Mapping the risks=
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	=Sources of data=		=Sources of data=
	Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence-based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, and published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.		Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence-based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys and published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.

	[[Category:Assessing the burden of disease and risk assessment]]		[[Category:Assessing the burden of disease and risk assessment]]

Bosmana fem at 20:32, 22 March 2023

2023-03-22T20:32:04Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:32, 22 March 2023
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	=Sources of data=		=Sources of data=
	Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence-based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, and published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.		Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence-based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, and published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.

			[[Category:Assessing the burden of disease and risk assessment]]

Bosmana fem at 21:29, 18 December 2022

2022-12-18T21:29:42Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:29, 18 December 2022
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	Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preventive and control measures). The concept of 'risk' is here defined as the [XXX hazard/impact * probability of occurrence.... to be completed..]		Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preventive and control measures). The concept of 'risk' is here defined as the [XXX hazard/impact * probability of occurrence.... to be completed..]

	The differences with Rapid Risk Assessments are:		The differences with [[Rapid Risk Assessment\|Rapid Risk Assessments]] are:

	* the timeline in which the assessment takes place: instead of 24-28 hours, a formal risk assessment may take weeks or even months		* the timeline in which the assessment takes place: instead of 24-28 hours, a formal risk assessment may take weeks or even months
	* the focus of the risk scenarios: instead of ~~focus~~ on the immediate problem, the focus includes possible future evolutions of the hazard under assessment		* the focus of the risk scenarios: instead of focusing on the immediate problem, the focus includes possible future evolutions of the hazard under assessment
	Health risks may arise in the population (emerging or newly identified diseases), or may already exist (yet with changing epidemiological ~~pattern~~ or changes in risk factors). It is important to be aware that risks do not remain static; formal risk assessments ~~take~~ development-scenarios ~~into account~~.		Health risks may arise in the population (emerging or newly identified diseases) or may already exist (yet with changing epidemiological patterns or changes in risk factors). It is important to be aware that risks do not remain static; formal risk assessments consider development scenarios.

	=Problem formulation=		=Problem formulation=
	The scope of the assessment is the starting point. This could be the risk of introduction of a disease agent, or the risk of spread of a disease. It could cover threats to one sector (health) or many (e.g. agriculture, food, security). Once the scope is defined, the problem is formulated, with related objectives of the assessment (SMART). This will also clarify what sectors of society are affected by the problem.		The scope of the assessment is the starting point. This could be the risk of the introduction of a disease agent or the risk of the spread of a disease. It could cover threats to one sector (health) or many (e.g., agriculture, food, security). Once the scope is defined, the problem is formulated, with related objectives of the assessment (SMART). This will also clarify what sectors of society are affected by the problem.

	=Constituting a Formal Risk assessment group=		=Constituting a Formal Risk assessment group=
	Many hazards that are assessed are cross cutting through different sectors and disciplines in health. Therefore the team needs to reflect this multidisciplinary and multisectoral aspect. The group should be large enough to cover all areas, include representatives from health and other relevant sectors. Additional experts will be contacted to provide expert input.		Many hazards that are assessed are cross-cutting through different sectors and disciplines in health. Therefore the team needs to reflect on this multidisciplinary and multisectoral aspect. The group should be large enough to cover all areas, and include representatives from health and other relevant sectors. Additional experts will be contacted to provide expert input.

	=Defining the probability of occurrence: an example=		=Defining the probability of occurrence: an example=
	When defining the risk of introduction of West Nile Virus in a country, then a first issue to address is estimating the probability of introduction of the virus in the population. This includes studying migratory routes of birds that could carry the virus and the presence of vectors (Aedes albopictus) in the country. Specifically the interest will be in the frequency of occurrence of specific migratory birds in the country (this can be informed via veterinarians and ~~wild life~~ societies) and the presence and future spread of the mosquito (this can be informed by environmental specialists and entomologists and in addition specialists in climate change).		When defining the risk of the introduction of West Nile Virus in a country, then the first issue to address is estimating the probability of the introduction of the virus in the population. This includes studying migratory routes of birds that could carry the virus and the presence of vectors (Aedes albopictus) in the country. Specifically, the interest will be in the frequency of occurrence of specific migratory birds in the country (this can be informed via veterinarians and wildlife societies) and the presence and future spread of the mosquito (this can be informed by environmental specialists and entomologists and in addition specialists in climate change).

	Socio-economic factors (e.g. agricultural development, technological development, movement of people) also need to be taken into account		Socio-economic factors (e.g., agricultural development, technological development, movement of people) also need to be taken into account.

	=Defining the impact=		=Defining the impact=
	The scope of the risk assessment defines also the scope of the impact to describe: only health, or also other areas such as economics, travel, agriculture, security etc. The impact depends on various hazard factors.		The scope of the risk assessment defines also the scope of the impact to describe: only health or also other areas such as economics, travel, agriculture, security etc. The impact depends on various hazard factors.

	Hazard factors for infectious agents are:		Hazard factors for infectious agents are:
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	* Severity of illness		* Severity of illness
	* Outcomes of illness		* Outcomes of illness
	* Dose response effects		* Dose-response effects
	In addition, there will be several host factors that are relevant to describe:		In addition, there will be several host factors that are relevant to describe:

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	* ..... (complement)		* ..... (complement)

	Characteristics of the system are essential to describe: the structure and capacity of the health care system, laboratory capacity, treatment capacity, prevention and control capacity. For bloodborne diseases (such as WNV), it is important to describe the blood donation process, options and costs for screening (depending on scenario of establishment of the disease in the country)		Characteristics of the system are essential to describe: the structure and capacity of the health care system, laboratory capacity, treatment capacity, prevention and control capacity. For bloodborne diseases (such as WNV), it is important to describe the blood donation process, options, and costs for screening (depending on the scenario of the establishment of the disease in the country)

	=Modeling the risks=		=Modeling the risks=
	Scenario tree modeling describes the chain of events that will lead to possible risks. This requires ~~to describe~~ a tree of events (each event step will be a relevant condition for the final risk). Then for each of these steps, the probability is assigned. Finally a sensitivity analysis is performed.		Scenario tree modeling describes the chain of events that will lead to possible risks. This requires describing a tree of events (each event step will be a relevant condition for the final risk). Then for each of these steps, the probability is assigned. Finally a sensitivity analysis is performed.

	=Mapping the risks=		=Mapping the risks=
	It is usually relevant for risk managers to have a visual representation of risks according to geographical region of a country (map). This will help to set priorities for risk reduction strategies. Risk maps can also aggregate information from different factors ~~that are~~ considered predictors ~~of probability~~ of an event.		It is usually relevant for risk managers to have a visual representation of risks according to the geographical region of a country (map). This will help to set priorities for risk reduction strategies. Risk maps can also aggregate information from different factors considered predictors of an event's probability.

	=Sources of data=		=Sources of data=
	Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.		Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence-based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, and published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.

Bosmana fem: Created page with "Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preve..."

2022-12-18T21:25:55Z

Created page with "Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preve..."

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Formal risk assessment is the process of a systematic review of evidence that defines or estimates risk in the population. The purpose is to guide risk management (e.g., preventive and control measures). The concept of 'risk' is here defined as the [XXX hazard/impact * probability of occurrence.... to be completed..]

The differences with Rapid Risk Assessments are:

* the timeline in which the assessment takes place: instead of 24-28 hours, a formal risk assessment may take weeks or even months
* the focus of the risk scenarios: instead of focus on the immediate problem, the focus includes possible future evolutions of the hazard under assessment
Health risks may arise in the population (emerging or newly identified diseases), or may already exist (yet with changing epidemiological pattern or changes in risk factors). It is important to be aware that risks do not remain static; formal risk assessments take development-scenarios into account.

=Problem formulation=
The scope of the assessment is the starting point. This could be the risk of introduction of a disease agent, or the risk of spread of a disease. It could cover threats to one sector (health) or many (e.g. agriculture, food, security). Once the scope is defined, the problem is formulated, with related objectives of the assessment (SMART). This will also clarify what sectors of society are affected by the problem.

=Constituting a Formal Risk assessment group=
Many hazards that are assessed are cross cutting through different sectors and disciplines in health. Therefore the team needs to reflect this multidisciplinary and multisectoral aspect. The group should be large enough to cover all areas, include representatives from health and other relevant sectors. Additional experts will be contacted to provide expert input.

=Defining the probability of occurrence: an example=
When defining the risk of introduction of West Nile Virus in a country, then a first issue to address is estimating the probability of introduction of the virus in the population. This includes studying migratory routes of birds that could carry the virus and the presence of vectors (Aedes albopictus) in the country. Specifically the interest will be in the frequency of occurrence of specific migratory birds in the country (this can be informed via veterinarians and wild life societies) and the presence and future spread of the mosquito (this can be informed by environmental specialists and entomologists and in addition specialists in climate change).

Socio-economic factors (e.g. agricultural development, technological development, movement of people) also need to be taken into account

=Defining the impact=
The scope of the risk assessment defines also the scope of the impact to describe: only health, or also other areas such as economics, travel, agriculture, security etc. The impact depends on various hazard factors.

Hazard factors for infectious agents are:

* Infectiousness / Transmissibility
* Mode of transmission
* Pathogenicity
* Severity of illness
* Outcomes of illness
* Dose response effects
In addition, there will be several host factors that are relevant to describe:

* Susceptibility
* Vulnerability
* ..... (complement)

Characteristics of the system are essential to describe: the structure and capacity of the health care system, laboratory capacity, treatment capacity, prevention and control capacity. For bloodborne diseases (such as WNV), it is important to describe the blood donation process, options and costs for screening (depending on scenario of establishment of the disease in the country)

=Modeling the risks=
Scenario tree modeling describes the chain of events that will lead to possible risks. This requires to describe a tree of events (each event step will be a relevant condition for the final risk). Then for each of these steps, the probability is assigned. Finally a sensitivity analysis is performed.

=Mapping the risks=
It is usually relevant for risk managers to have a visual representation of risks according to geographical region of a country (map). This will help to set priorities for risk reduction strategies. Risk maps can also aggregate information from different factors that are considered predictors of probability of an event.

=Sources of data=
Probability and impact need to be as much as possible fact and evidence based. Surveillance data (human, animal, environmental) are useful, as are specific surveys, published research. If information is missing from those sources, then expert opinion can be recruited to complement the required information.